Another week, another installment of “As the Big Ten Turns,” or as it seems as the conference projects to have a jumbled mess in the standings when it’s all said and done. Maybe the addition of a Big Ten Championship starting in 2011 wasn’t such a bad idea?
At #9, the Wisconsin Badgers lead all Big Ten teams in the most recent BCS standings followed by #11 Ohio State, #14 Michigan State and #16 Iowa. Let’s take a look at each team, including Wisconsin and speculate on how the Badgers can get back to Pasadena for the first time since 2000.
By: Nick Grays
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 7-1 (3-1)
Remaining Schedule: @Purdue, Indiana, @Michigan, Northwestern
Outlook: At #9 in the BCS rankings, some would say the Badgers control their destiny en route to the Rose Bowl, but that’s not exactly the case. Hypothetically, if the Big Ten ends in a three-way tie with Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State all at 7-1 in the conference standings, the tie-breaker would actually go to Michigan State. Here’s why; Iowa would be eliminated due to a 10-2 overall record and Michigan State has the head-to-head win over the Badgers.
If the three-way tie is between Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State (assuming 7-1 conference records), the tie-breaker would go to the highest ranked team in the BCS standings. This could be troublesome for the Badgers because a convincing win for the Buckeyes over Iowa could leapfrog them past the Badgers.
At the same time, don’t underestimate the four remaining games left on the Badgers’ schedule. The most dangerous game is Northwestern. They always seem to have the propensity to play spoiler in the Big Ten towards the end of a conference season. Don’t have to go back very far to remember the last time they beat the Badgers. Just last year, the Wildcats dealt the Badgers a crushing blow in a 33-31 win in late November.
Prediction: Even though they lost to Northwestern last season, there will be too much emotion and pride surrounding the final game in Camp Randall this season and the Badgers will finish at 11-1. Keep reading to see how the rest of the Big Ten will shake out.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 8-1 (4-1)
Remaining Schedule: Penn State, @ Iowa, Michigan
Outlook: As I mentioned above, one way the Buckeyes can punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl is by being the highest ranked team in the BCS if the Badgers and Spartans win out. This is possible if they were to go into Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City and escape with a convincing win.
A Badgers loss would also help the Buckeyes out considerably seeing how the Badgers own the head-to-head tiebreaker with their huge win in Madison. The Buckeyes do not play the Spartans this season, so a tie-breaker would defer to the BCS standings.
Prediction: Ohio State will also finish with a 11-1 mark this season, ensuring at least a share of the Big Ten Title. Keep reading to see if the picture gets more cloudy or if it clears up.
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 8-1 (4-1)
Remaining Games: Minnesota, Purdue, @ Penn State
Outlook: Michigan State is arguably the most interesting of the “Big Four” because they are the only team to notch a win versus the Badgers. However, due to an embarrassing loss at Iowa last weekend, they are hoping the Hawkeyes can now knock off Ohio State at home to prevent a tiebreaker involving the Spartans and Buckeyes.
The Spartans also appear to have the easiest remaining schedule with two home games and the lone road game against a struggling Penn State team.
Prediction: Michigan State will also win out and finish 11-1, ensuring them the third share of the Big Ten Championship. You can probably see how this is shaping up, but keep reading for completion.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 6-2 (3-1)
Remaining Games: @Indiana, @Northwestern, Ohio State, @Minnesota
Outlook: Yes, the Hawkeyes were lucky enough to get the Badgers, Spartans and Buckeyes at home, but that leaves three more road games before the end of the season. Don’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes drop a game on the road before their big match-up with the Buckeyes.
In order to lay out all of the scenarios; for the Iowa Hawkeyes to be Rose Bowl-bound, they must win out and hope the Badgers lose a game. The Hawkeyes do own the tiebreaker over the Spartans.
Prediction: Like I mentioned above, I think the Hawkeyes will stumble against the Buckeyes, but the key will be how bad they lose the game. Fortunately for the Badgers, I think it will be a close game.
Without further ado, here are my final Big Ten Bowl Projections for the “Big Four”:
Wisconsin: Rose Bowl
Ohio State: BCS Bowl (Fiesta, Orange or Sugar)
Michigan State: Capital One Bowl
Iowa: Outback Bowl
Do you think this is how the Big Ten will shake out or do you have another theory? Let me know by commenting below.
Follow Nick Grays by clicking here or visit his blog Nick Knows Best.