While the NCAA Tournament history of the Purdue Boilermakers is rather painful, especially so in recent years, hope springs eternal for them this March.
Purdue (23-2, 12-2) is currently ranked #2 in the nation, and they entered Thursday night’s win over Minnesota nationally ranked in the top 20 for wins (1st), offensive efficiency (2nd), rebounding margin (2nd), three-point field goal percentage (4th), assists (7th), scoring offense (5th), scoring margin (9th), fewest fouls per game (13th), defensive efficiency (14th) and assist / turnover ratio (17th).
This is a big reason why the Boilermakers are your consensus favorite wherever March Madness betting is taking place. You’ll typically see the Boilers priced at about +650 to +700 to win it all this spring. Although last year’s champion, UConn is often not far behind, with the Huskies priced about +750 or +800.
For the most part, Purdue is the favorite, or at worst the co-favorites with UConn. And that makes sense, given how Purdue leads the country in quad-1 wins (8) and quad-1 and 2 wins combined (15).
If you’re not betting on the Purdue Boilermakers or UConn however, then you might want to consider the following strong national title contenders:
Houston Cougars (usually priced at around +900), the Tennessee Volunteers (often backed at about +1,200), the Arizona Wildcats (+1,500 is a fair market price for a bet on them), the Auburn Tigers (consumer sentiment is pricing them at about +1,500 right now) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (usually valued around +1,700 in national title futures betting).
If you want to do some long shot backing, then perhaps you can ironically back one of the blue bloods.
Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke (who all wear blue by the way) all face very long odds of making the Final Four, let alone winning it all. If you want a high-risk, high rewards proposition, bet on them. But the overall favorite, Purdue is the most interesting proposition of all, given their brutal March Madness history.
They became just the second #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed in Fairleigh Dickinson last time out. Although it is worth noting that the other school to suffer that humiliation, Virginia in 2018, went on to win it all the very next year.
Something to think about while we recall more Purdue Boilermakers March Sadness.
In the year before last, they fell to a #15 seed in St. Peter’s. The season before that they were ousted by a #13 seed in North Texas. A #12 seed, Arkansas-Little Rock, eliminated them in 2016 while an #11 seed has sent them packing three times in program history- most recently VCU in 2011.
Oh, and they have been knocked out of March Madness by a #10 seed twice as well.
The only school to have ever been knocked out by a #16, a #15 and a #13 seed, they just need to get bounced by a 14 seed to complete the set. Yes, “Defense Lives Here,” but its room mate is exiting the tourney very early, at the hands of a small school.
No wonder people think Matt Painter is a terrible NCAA Tournament coach. It’s no mystery that choking away big games is the brand of ball that many people often associate with the Purdue Boilermakers.
Maybe that’s fair, maybe it’s not, but it’s sort of like the hoops version of what the word #Clemsoning meant in football, back in the mid-2010s, prior to the Tigers’ run of national titles.
Is this the year Purdue finally gets back to the Final Four? If they can reach the third and final weekend of the tourney, it would mark the first time for the program since 1980.
It’s hard to say, but the bookies seem to have a lot of bullish sentiment for a program that has never won a national title in its history.
Plus, they also have the National Player of the Year to end all National Players of the Year in Zach Edey. The giant of a young man currently ranks third in the country in both points per game and rebounds per game needs nine points to become the fourth player in Big Ten history with 2,100 career points and 1,100 career rebounds.
When you have Edey, not to mention a plethora of very efficient 3-pt shooters to complement him, you have a good chance to cut down the nets come April.
Paul M. Banks is the Founding Editor of The Sports Bank. He’s also the author of “Transatlantic Passage: How the English Premier League Redefined Soccer in America,” and “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry.”
He currently contributes to Ravens Wire, part of the USA Today SMG’s NFL Wire Network. His past bylines include the New York Daily News, Sports Illustrated, Chicago Tribune and the Washington Times. You can follow him on Twitter.