Iโm not a guy who relates every sports argument back to stats. We all know that guy, though. He can usually be found saying ignorant things such as:
โWell, the stats say X so you guys donโt have a chance tonight.โ
Itโs so gratifying to me when their statistically based predictions go wrong. Thatโs why the game isnโt played on paper.
But Iโm aware stats do have a place in sports, thatโs why we keep them. 3 games worth of information isnโt really enough to make long term projections, but I want to take the stats that we have so far and give some context to this up and down season weโre witnessing.
The specific trend that I notice is that the defense is as dominant as ever.
This would come as a surprise to nobody if you were to say this in any other year in franchise history. But with all of the media coverage given to the upgrades on offense, the defense figured to take a back seat in terms of importance to the teamโs success.
Here are just a few stats that blow that theory out of the water:
Team Defensive Stats (NFL Ranks):
- Total Points Allowed: 50 (5th)
- Total Yards Allowed: 837 (6th)
- Total Turnovers: ย 9 (2nd)
- Interceptions: 6 (1st)
- Fumbles Recovered: 3 (T-2nd)
- Sacks: 14 (1st)
- โDefensive Simple Rating Systemโ: 1.1 (16th)
The offensive lines of the Colts, Packers, and Rams arenโt exactly โtop notchโ in anyoneโs book. Thatโs why the โDefensive Simple Rating Systemโ (DSRS) indicates that the defense is a middle-of-the-road unit.
DSRS, according to pro-football-reference.com, is a rating system that calibrates the value of a defense as a whole. The โaverageโ NFL defense would have a DSRS of 0.0, and teams can dip into the negatives if they play poorly.
The Bears have had a DSRS of 1.1 or higher a whopping 34 times in their history, with their highest ratings coming in 1963 and 1985. Both of those seasons ended with championships.
But in their storied history, the Chicago Bears have never faced a weaker bunch of opponents. โStrength of Scheduleโ is another stat kept by pro-football-reference.com to rate how tough each teamโs individual schedule is based on the offensive and defensive rankings of the opponents.
However they concocted their numbers, they have the Bearโs opponents collectively rated at a -6.2, which is the weakest strength of schedule in franchise history.
In the NFL, you simply play the opponents on your schedule. If the schedule truly is weak, then more power to the Bears for taking care of their business and handling the opponents they should be beating like the Colts and the Rams.
The Packers did ride their offense and MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a Super Bowl victory 2 years ago and a 15-1 record last year, so holding Rodgers to 219 yards and 1 TD while forcing 2 turnovers is a great effort in my book. The loss had very little to do with the defense.
But advanced stats can get skewed and misinterpreted sometimes. Letโs get back to some hard numbersโฆ
A lot of the consistency on defense has to do with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. But Urlacher has been hampered by a knee injury that has been lingering since the end of last season, and itโs effecting his production.
Urlacher is only averaging 3 tackles per game this season (career low) and he hasnโt recorded a single sack since 2010.
The leadership Urlacher brings to the Bears canโt be understated. You know you are getting above average production and countless intangibles, even through the injuries. But it seems like father time is slowly catching up with #54.
โBut what about Lance Briggsโ you say?
Briggs is 3 years younger than Urlacher and is still in his prime. Through 3 games this year, heโs right on track with his career average in tackles per game with 5.3. Other than the dropped interception he had against the Packers, Lance is the same old Lance.
But playing at outside linebacker, Briggs doesnโt have as much impact as Urlacher does on the defense.
So if the Bears defense is playing so well, and itโs not because Urlacher or Briggs are playing out of their minds, who should we be directing our praise at?
Iโll start with a player whoโs had more success than anyone couldโve predicted: Tim Jennings.
The secondary is a perennial concern for the Bears, and those concerns were amplified when Charles Tillman suffered a leg injury against the Colts. But Tim Jennings has stepped up in a way that might land him a roster spot in the Pro Bowl.
Jennings leads the NFL with 4 interceptions and has had at least 1 pick in every game. Heโs also directly contributed to the other 2 interceptions the Bears have had by tipping passes to safeties Chris Conte and Major Wright.
Jennings has also successfully defended 9 passes this season. His previous career high is 10. At the pace heโs on now, he projects to have 48 pass defenses.
To put this statistic into perspective, Champ Bailey, widely regarded as the best defensive back in this era, has a career high of 24 pass defenses. That shows how unrealistic it would appear to be to reach 48 in a season, but it speaks volumes to the pace thatJenningshas set so far.
Part of the reason why Jennings has been having a breakout season is because of how much pressure the defensive line is getting on quarterbacks.
The Bearโs defense leads the NFL with 14 sacks, and the line has accounted for all but 1 of them. Henry Melton is 9th in the NFL with 3 sacks. Every player along the defensive line except Matt Toeaina has at least 1 sack to their credit.
Part of this can be attributed to the trickle down effect Julius Peppers has. He draws so many double and triple teams that it makes the other linemenโs jobs easier. It also makes the defensive backโs lives easier when quarterbacks are rushed into poor throws.
Other than ball hawking and harassing the quarterback, the Bears have proven to be stout against the run. Theyโve only allowed 228 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground through 3 games, which is 6th best in the NFL.
The point of this article is not to overly hype up the defenseโs performance; itโs to show how their play has driven this team to a 2-1 record. It hasnโt been the air show we caught a glimpse of in week 1. In this case, this IS your fatherโs Bears team.
Luckily for the defense, a difficult test wonโt come until week 7 when the Detroit Lions come to town with the leagueโs 2nd best offense (statistically).
In the meantime, the Bears can continue to rely on their rock solid defense to take care of their weaker opponents like they have been for decades.
*All statistics gathered from pro-football-reference.com and NFL.com
