Michigan St. basketball has absolutely nothing to apologize for. MSU lost their first game versus a real team this past season to national champion Duke in a very lopsided fashion. It happened in Indianapolis in late November.
The Spartans lost their last game of the 2014-15 season in Indy (at a much bigger venue) to Duke in even more lopsided fashion. Although it sounds counter-intuitive, Michigan St. basketball made tremendous strides in between those two games.
Tom Izzo‘s side grew by leaps and bounds this season (teams that lose at home to Texas Southern don’t typically go to the Final Four) State’s growth and development, as well as the exciting recruits coming to East Lansing next season, make them the #8 team in our exceedingly early 2015-16 preseason rankings.
Michigan State should be right behind Maryland in a tightly contested Big Ten race. Tom Izzo loses two valuable starters, but he does get West Virginia transfer Eron Harris eligible and a McDonald’s All-American in Deyonta Davis. As we learned again in this tournament, never count out Sparty and that will certainly be the case next season.
Projected Depth Chart
C: Gavin Schilling (Jr)/Matt Costello (Sr)
PF: Deyonta Davis (Fr)/Marvin Clark (So)
SF: Denzel Valentine (Sr)/Javon Bess (So)
SG: Eron Harris (Jr)/Bryn Forbes(Sr)/Alvin Ellis (Jr)/Matt McQuaid (Fr)/Kyle Aherns (Fr)
PG: Lourawis Nairn (So)/Bryn Forbes(Sr)
Gone: SF-Branden Dawson, PG-Travis Trice
Obviously, this all changes if McDonald’s All-American Caleb Swanigan chooses Michigan State this month (more on him here). Sparty is considered the front-runner to acquire his signature, although some circles believe that California, not MSU, could be the front-runner. With Davis already in tow (who’s projected to be the next Adreian Payne one day), expect State to be stronger up front next year and perhaps a more front-court oriented team.
Sign Swanigan and that previous sentence gets taken to the nth level in 2015-16.
Dawson will likely be a second round pick in the NBA Draft, and Valentine, if he continues on the path he’s currently on, would then become a second round pick in 2016. Thus continues the tradition of “Second Round State,” as we outlined here.
Although detractors may use that phrase in a condescending manner; there’s no shame in that at all.
Making it to the NBA Draft puts you in the 1%. Other than the .001%, pretty much Duke and Kentucky, no one is “1st round St.” or “Lottery St.” However, the NBA Draft’s second round is both symbolic and emblematic of where Michigan St. basketball is right now.
This school year saw Michigan State become the first program ever to win four straight bowl games, and reach four straight sweet 16s. Credit Athletic Director Mark Hollis; he’s as good as it gets in this business. He’s like the anti-Mike Thomas, the A.D. who’s running Illini revenue producing sports into the ground.
Michigan St. basketball enters next season with the third longest active NCAA Tournament streak in the nation at 18. March Madness is just another part of the schedule now. Next year, like this past year, and just about every year, the Spartans will use tough, rigorous scheduling in the non-conference to build up a team that peaks at the right time in March.
If they have some bad stumbles in the non-conference, or even again in January or February this year, just chill out. They’ll come correct down the stretch like they always do. Every player who has stayed four years under Tom Izzo has reached at least one Elite 8. In the past 15 years, Michigan St. basketball has reached seven Elite 8; no one else has reached six.
So while Izzo is indeed Mr. March; he is unfortunately not Mr. March. For State fans, the season almost always ends the same exact way it ends for fans of every other team in the NCAA Tournament; curled up on the couch in the fetal position, under blankets, with a tub of Ben & Jerry’s while Whitney Houston’s “Didn’t We Almost Have It All?” plays on repeat with the lights out.
Or maybe that’s just the way the season always ends for me individually?…Let’s get back to the analysis.
Here’s Izzo’s record on Final Four weekend.
1999 0-1
2000 2-0
2001 0-1
2005 0-1
2009 1-1
2010 0-1
2015 0-1
3-6 overall (33% winning percentage)
Therefore, Izzo and Michigan St. basketball are in some measures a victim of their success. The season really doesn’t begin until March, and anything short of a Final Four is a failure. Only the top 1% of programs can truly define a successful season by a national title. The green and white are definitely included in that 1%.
What will next year hold? Well to quote Houston’s “Where do Broken Hearts go?” My prediction for 2015-16 Michigan St. basketball is….
I’ve been around enough to know
That dreams don’t turn to gold
And that there is no easy way
No you just can’t run away
And what we have is so much more
Than we ever had before
That said, here’s our extremely early projection of how the Big Ten race shapes out in 2015-16.
1. Maryland (link to 2015-16 Maryland season preview)
2. Michigan State (link to 2015-16 MSU season preview)
3. Michigan (Wolverines make our 5 non-NCAA Tournament teams who will go dancing next year)
4. Indiana
5. Wisconsin (Badgers make our 5 elite teams who take a step back next season list)
6. Purdue
7. Ohio State
8. Iowa
9. Northwestern
10. Minnesota
11. Illinois (link to 2015-16 Illinois season preview)
12. Penn State
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
Paul M. Banks owns, operates and writes The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with Fox Sports Digital. You can read Banks’ feature stories and op-eds in the Chicago Tribune RedEye newspaper and hear his regular guest spots on numerous sports talk radio stations all across the country.
Follow him on Twitter (@paulmbanks)