As we enter the last month of the current Premier League season, the battle to avoid relegation is just as intense as the battle at the summit of the Premier League table. Nineteenth & 20th positions look sewn up, with Watford and Norwich destined for Championship football next year. It’s the 18th place we are going to look at in this series.
The first club under the microscope is Everton.
Everton
Historically, the Toffees have one of the longest runs without being relegated. Everton has not relegated them since the Premier League’s inception in the 1992/93 season. Prior to that, they hadn’t experienced relegation from the top tier of the football league since the 1950/51 season. They are behind only Arsenal as the side with the longest stay in English football’s top tier.
The Toffees sit on 29 points with just six games remaining to play. Having started the season with supporters in an uproar at the appointment of former Liverpool boss Rafa Benitez, things have looked shaky from the start. The Spaniard barely made it six months in the big seat on the blue half of Merseyside before being unceremoniously sacked in the middle of the January transfer window.
After a decent start, Benitez’s Blues had a horrid run between October and January. They only picked up one victory and averaged less than a goal a game in this period. The Spanish gaffer was giving his marching orders with Everton sitting in fifteenth place on the Premier League table, six points above the relegation zone.
There didn’t seem to be a Plan B. It was almost two weeks later, on transfer deadline day, that former Chelsea and Derby County boss Frank Lampard was confirmed as Benitez’s permanent successor. Lampard led Everton to victory in two of his first three matches, and it seemed the side was turning the corner. They weren’t. Since then the Blues have lurched from one poor result to another and following a 2-0 defeat to Merseyside rivals Liverpool most recently, find themselves in the relegation zone, having played 32 matches.
The Run Home
Now we have set the stage, let’s look at the Toffees’ remaining fixtures and see if we can gauge how many points Frank Lampard’s men might expect to finish on come the 23rd of May.
Vs Chelsea (H)
Everton’s next match sees them come up against the club that their manager made his name at when they host Chelsea at Goodison Park. The Blues secured a point in a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in the reverse fixture this season. They have also won their last three fixtures against The Pensioners at Goodison Park. Chelsea hasn’t quite locked in Champions League qualification for next season, so they have everything to play for still, as well.
I am going to predict a 1-1 draw
Vs Leicester (A)
Next up Frank Lampard’s men travel to the King Power Stadium to take on Leicester City. The two sides played out a 1-1 draw in their rescheduled reverse fixture just a week ago. The Foxes have underwhelmed this season and Everton might just fancy nicking all three points here. Especially when you consider Everton hasn’t lost to the Foxes since a 2019 penalty shoot-out loss in the League Cup.
With that in mind, I am going to predict a 2-1 victory for the Toffees.
Vs Watford (A)
After a win and draw, the Blues will stay on the road to take on Watford at Vicarage Road. The Hornets picked up all three points in a goal-fest at Goodison Park back in October with a 5-2 victory. Prior to that, the Blues had not suffered a defeat to Watford since February 2019. I think Roy Hodgson’s Watford might prove difficult to beat. This could be a tricky one for the Toffees.
I am going for a draw 0-0
Vs Brentford (H)
Everton returns home following the Watford match to face this season’s surprise packets in Brentford. These two sides have faced each other twice already this season. Brentford won the Premier League reverse 1-0. Everton got one of their best wins of the season in the fourth round of the FA Cup against Brentford, defeating them 4-1. I don’t like the Toffees chances here.
Brentford is in some excellent form and I am picking them to defeat Everton 2-1.
Vs Crystal Palace (H)
If my other predictions are spot on, Everton will enter matchday 37 with 34 points. With thirty-five points the traditional threshold for Premier League safety, that means Everton will need at least a point in their last two fixtures to avoid their first relegation in over 70 years.
Crystal Palace will safely finish lower mid-table and a lot of this result will depend on how invested Patrick Vieira’s side is in picking up the three points. The Eagles won the reverse fixture this season 3-1 back in December.
I am going with Everton picking up a tight 1-0 victory in their last home game of the season.
Vs Arsenal (A)
If all my predictions come to fruition (yeah, right) that means Everton will travel to North London to face Arsenal very much still in a relegation scrap. Arsenal will probably be in the top four race still making this fixture one of the biggest on Championship Sunday.
Under the guidance of Rafa Benitez, Everton picked up an incredible comeback victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Trailing 1-0 in the 78th minute, a goal from Richarlison leveled the scores.
That set the scene for Demarai Gray to score a 90th-minute winner to give the Toffees all three points.
I just don’t see Everton picking up three points in this one.
- They are not good enough
- Arsenal will probably have far too much on the line to misstep in front of their home fans
I am going with a Gunners victory 3-1 to close out the season.
Everton will finish the season with a record of 10 wins, seven draws, and a mammoth 21 losses this season if my predictions are proved correct. That means they will finish on 37 points.
For context, that would have been enough for survival in all but one season since 2014/15. The 2015/16 season is the outlier when Newcastle was relegated with this exact amount of points.
Will it be enough for survival in the 2021/22 season? Only time will tell. One thing is for sure, Everton fans will desperately hope that it is.
Stuart Kavanagh is an up-and-coming sports journalist from Melbourne, Australia. Along with being the owner of the sports and entertainment website thepyrrhic.com, he is also the co-host of the ‘After Extra Time’ podcast. Football mad, he is always down for debate and discussion at @stueyissickofit on Twitter.
