By Jake McCormick
The Milwaukee Bucks take on the Atlanta Hawks in Game 2 of their first round Eastern Conference playoff matchup tonight. While Atlanta has a 1-0 series lead, Milwaukee showed enough spark in the second half of Game 1 to give fans some idea of what to expect heading into tonight’s game. Here are five predictions so guaranteed that wagering your first born son or new puppy on their success will be easier than accepting a bonus from your employer:
1. No deer in headlights
The Bucks lived up to every clichéd part of this phrase in Game 1, digging themselves a 20-point hole that was closed to eight at one point in the second half. It makes sense when you consider the only player that had experienced Milwaukee’s last playoff berth was Dan Gadzuric and they were playing in a pretty raucous Atlanta environment. But rest assured that coach Scott Skiles will keep the team focused on the driving factors behind their 52-40 second half advantage over the Hawks on Saturday.
It took two quarters before John Salmons got his midrange game up to speed, and Brandon Jennings was more than willing to do his part the second the ball was tipped. Now that the “awe” feeling of their first playoff game together has worn out, the Bucks will do a better job early of forcing the Atlanta bigs out of their defensive comfort zones under the basket.
2. Milwaukee will make slightly more baskets inside than Atlanta’s tallied blocks
Jennings did a good job of getting to the rack in Game 1, and Salmons got better at it as the game wore on, but the Hawks were turning away layups and runners like they were underagers trying to sneak into a bar.
The Bucks know that getting Jennings, Salmons, Ersan Ilyasova and Carlos Delfino into the lane is essential to spread the Hawks’ defense out and give themselves more opportunities at open outside looks. Their chances of winning greatly increase if they can make Atlanta respect any semblance of inside game Milwaukee can muster. Which leads to my next prediction…
3. Atlanta will crash the boards better, but not by much
If you had only watched the first half of Game 1, you would’ve sworn that the Hawks were eventually going to start pulling down boards and play keep away like a bully holding a little kid’s lunch box over his head. However, the Bucks kept the rebounding numbers close, and will do the same in Game 2.
If the Bucks win the battle of the boards, they win the game. But since we live in reality, Atlanta’s athleticism will give them at least a seven rebound advantage by the end of the game. While other parts of Milwaukee’s game may enhance in excitement (outside shooting, midrange jumpers, drive and dishes), the fight underneath should remain pretty painful to watch.
4. Brandon Jennings will have more assists and less points
Jennings was the Bucks’ only offensive threat in the first half, which didn’t bode well for the team early in the year and surely won’t be any better in a seven-game series against a hyper-athletic team. I expect Jennings to put up 20-25 points in Game 2, but he’ll also contribute at least seven assists and four rebounds.
Salmons will lead the team in scoring, with Jennings close behind, and I fully expect Delfino to take more than four shots from the perimeter. Expect another solid game from Ilyasova as well, as he is pretty much the only form of a down low scoring threat in a Bucks uniform.
5. Atlanta wins by more than five, but less than 10
The end score wont be much different than in Game 1, but Milwaukee will be much more balanced throughout four quarters as they force Atlanta to fight for every point they get. If the Bucks hadn’t forced themselves to play catch up through the last 24 minutes of Game 1, we could be looking at a 1-0 series in Milwaukee’s favor.
Like every other Andrew Bogut-less game against legitimate contenders, the Bucks will scratch and claw enough to taste the air of a victory. But hard work can only take a team with an identity change so far against battle-tested opponents. After this one, we’ll once again be left to wonder what could have been had the Aussie pillar not fallen so hard so fast.